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7.1 Risk Management
Risk is simply "uncertainty that matters." In the 2026 PMP exam, the goal isn't just to fill out a Risk Register; it's to build a project that is resilient to shock and agile enough to seize opportunities.
🏗️ The Risk Framework
A risk is an uncertain event. If it happens, it has an impact.
Threats
Negative Risks
Events we want to Avoid or Mitigate. They represent potential delays, cost overruns, or quality failures.
Opportunities
Positive Risks
Events we want to Exploit or Enhance. They represent potential early finishes, cost savings, or higher value.
💡 2026 Focus: Risk vs. Issue
- Risk: A future uncertainty. Managed in the Risk Register.
- Issue: A present certainty (it happened). Managed in the Issue Log.
📊 Analysis Techniques
You must prioritize where to spend your limited management energy.
Qualitative Analysis
Fast & Subjective
Ranking risks as "High, Medium, or Low" based on a Probability/Impact Matrix. Used for rapid prioritization.
Quantitative Analysis
Numerical & Data-Driven
Using Monte Carlo Simulations or Decision Trees to calculate exact probability of meeting a date or budget.
🛡️ Response Strategies
The exam will test your judgment on the BEST strategy for a given scenario.
| Type | Strategy | Action |
|---|---|---|
| THREAT | Avoid | Eliminate the cause (e.g., change scope to skip a risky task). |
| THREAT | Transfer | Shift the impact to a third party (e.g., Insurance, Fixed-Price contract). |
| THREAT | Mitigate | Reduce probability or impact (e.g., prototype a feature early). |
| THREAT | Accept | Do nothing. Use Contingency Reserve if it happens. |
| OPP | Exploit | Ensure it happens (e.g., assign your top expert to the task). |
| OPP | Enhance | Increase probability or impact of the upside. |
| OPP | Share | Partner with another group to capture the value together. |
🔄 Modern Practice: The Pre-Mortem
Instead of normal brainstorming, modern teams use the Pre-Mortem:
- Imagine the project has failed miserably 1 year from now.
- Work backward to find the "ghosts" (hidden risks) that caused the death.
- Implement preventive measures for those ghosts immediately.
📝 Exam Insight: If an exam scenario says a risk has occurred, the FIRST action is to implement the planned response and update the Issue Log. Do not start analyzing; the time for analysis was when it was still a risk.